Publications

* = corresponding author. Published works use the al-folio bibliography card layout and are grouped in reverse chronological order.

Google Scholar

Selected Publications

JAMES

Forest carbon modeling improved through hierarchical assimilation of pool-based measurements

Yu Zhou^* and Christopher A. Williams

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2025

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Nat. Geosci.

Large CO2 removal potential of woody debris preservation in managed forests

Yiqi Luo, Ning Wei, Xingjie Lu, and 8 more authors

Nature Geoscience, 2025

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Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.

Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Sybille Ruehr, Trevor F. Keenan, Christopher Williams, and 7 more authors

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2023

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ERL

Beyond biomass to carbon fluxes: Application and evaluation of a comprehensive forest carbon monitoring system

Yu Zhou^*, Christopher A. Williams, Nicholas Hasler, and 2 more authors

Environmental Research Letters, 2021

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JGR-B

A multiyear gridded data ensemble of surface biogenic carbon fluxes for North America: Evaluation and analysis of results

Yu Zhou, Christopher A. Williams, Thomas Lauvaux, and 5 more authors

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2020

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In Review or Revision

Under review. Zhou, J., Quan, Q., Huang, W., Hanson, P., Ricciuto, D., Mayes, M., Griffiths, N., Salmon, V., Weber, S., Jiang, L., Zhou, Y., Shi, X., Chen, W., Zhang, Y., & Luo, Y. The fate of peatland carbon interactively determined by elevated carbon dioxide and warming.

Published

2026

FEM

Perspectives: Effect of global change drivers on carbon fluxes and resilience of European forests

Mana Gharun, Charlotte Angove, Mirco Migliavacca, and 31 more authors

Forest Ecology and Management, 2026

Abs DOI

European forests play a central role for meeting the EU’s climate targets, but the declining carbon sink has left them trailing behind climate goals. Reversing this trend requires a systematic understanding of forest responses to shifting global change drivers, explicitly integrating aboveground and belowground processes. Here, we provide our perspective on the effects of multiple global change drivers on ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes (including both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) and the resilience of these fluxes, based on direct flux observations (e.g., from eddy covariance towers). First, we present changes in several key drivers (warming, drought, atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, winter warming, excess precipitation, late frost), over recent decades, some of which (winter warming, windthrow, excess precipitation, late frost) have received limited attention in forest carbon assessments. Some of these—such as winter warming—are expected to become increasingly frequent in the future. We then explicitly summarize how the four (more-frequently studied) key drivers affect carbon fluxes (i.e., CO2 and CH4 fluxes). The response of the net CO2 sink (i.e., net ecosystem productivity) is presented through its two component processes: gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). When considered individually, global change drivers often produce relatively predictable responses in forest carbon fluxes: warming tends to enhance both GPP and Reco, elevated atmospheric CO₂ generally stimulates photosynthesis, and moderate nitrogen (N) inputs can enhance productivity in N-limited systems. However, when drivers interact, ecosystem responses frequently become non-linear, amplified, or even reversed relative to single-driver expectations. For example, warming alone may extend the growing season and increase GPP, but in combination with drought, elevated vapor pressure deficit suppresses stomatal conductance, reduces GPP, and can increase respiration losses during rewetting events. Similarly, the positive effect of rising CO₂ on productivity may be constrained by nutrient limitation or drought stress, while historical N deposition can temporarily sustain CO₂ fertilization effects but also increase vulnerability to climatic stressors. Under compound disturbances—such as drought followed by extreme precipitation or winter warming—ecosystem respiration pulses and structural damage can further reduce net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Collectively, these findings indicate that forest carbon dynamics cannot be reliably inferred from single-driver responses alone; instead, interacting drivers shape ecosystem resilience through feedbacks among physiological processes, soil biogeochemistry, and disturbance regimes, often leading to thresholds or tipping points in carbon sink strength.
One Earth

Photosynthetic optimum temperature plays a minor role in the increase of terrestrial carbon uptake from 2000 to 2019

Chongyang Xu, Hongyan Liu, Dan Yakir, and 18 more authors

One Earth, 2026

Abs DOI

Summary Gross primary productivity (GPP; ecosystem-level photosynthesis) represents the largest terrestrial carbon flux and is highly sensitive to temperature. Despite global warming, the trends and controlling factors of optimum temperature (Topt) and maximum rates of GPP (GPPmax) remain uncertain. We investigated the drivers of Topt and GPPmax trends during 2000–2019 using global observations of ground-based eddy covariance and satellite-based sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. Although GPPmax increased worldwide, Topt increased only in tropical and temperate regions but remained unchanged globally and in arid and cold regions. Thermal acclimation via shifting Topt was constrained by atmospheric and soil dryness, explaining less than 20% of the global GPPmax rise. In contrast, GPPmax trends were more strongly driven by stomatal regulation improving water-use efficiency and by enhanced canopy development under dryness constraints. These findings challenge the expectation that thermal acclimation is central to projecting GPP under warming and highlight dynamic physiological-structural shifts that sustain terrestrial carbon uptake.
Biogeo.

Hydraulic Redistribution Decreases with Precipitation Magnitude and Frequency in a Dryland Ecosystem: A Data-Model Fusion Approach

A. K. Chandel, M. Cattry, Y. Zhou, and 4 more authors

Biogeosciences, 2026

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Ecology

Precipitation variability interacts with mean precipitation to restructure a semiarid grassland community

Jennifer A. Rudgers, Laureano A. Gherardi, Purbendra Yogi, and 14 more authors

Ecology, 2026

Abs DOI

Abstract Climate forecasts project change not only in the mean of climate variables but also in their variance. If these dual changes interact, then future ecological dynamics will be difficult to predict using current experimental approaches, which typically change the mean or impose a single extreme event, such as drought. We designed a new field experiment to factorially reduce mean precipitation and increase its interannual variability. Across 4 years, drier, more variable precipitation additively reduced aboveground primary productivity by 48%–69% and interactively reduced the dominant plant species, but had no effect on the plant species predicted to dominate in the future, which could lead to state transition. Drier, more variable precipitation also interactively reduced biodiversity more than either climate factor alone, with 37%–42% fewer plant species than under ambient conditions, a pattern that matched declining richness during the past 20 years of ongoing climate change. Drier, more variable precipitation restructured the composition and spatiotemporal variation of the plant community. Altered precipitation mean or variance affected 14% of plant species, with eight species sensitive to the mean × variance interaction. Results suggest that future forecasts of plant community structure may be inadequate if they fail to incorporate climate mean × variance interactions.

2025

JAMES

Forest carbon modeling improved through hierarchical assimilation of pool-based measurements

Yu Zhou^* and Christopher A. Williams

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2025

DOI HTML
Nat. Geosci.

Large CO2 removal potential of woody debris preservation in managed forests

Yiqi Luo, Ning Wei, Xingjie Lu, and 8 more authors

Nature Geoscience, 2025

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Science

Drought-induced peatland carbon loss exacerbated by elevated CO2 and warming

Quan Quan, Jiawei Zhou, Paul J. Hanson, and 16 more authors

Science, 2025

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Sci. Data

An Enhanced Phenology Dataset for Global Drylands from 2001 to 2019

Yuyan Dong, Yu Zhou^*, Li Zhang, and 5 more authors

Scientific Data, 2025

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2024

Book

Hybrid Modeling in Earth System Science

Yu Zhou

In Land Carbon Cycle Modeling Matrix Approach, Data Assimilation, Ecological Forecasting, and Machine Learning, 2024

2023

Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.

Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Sybille Ruehr, Trevor F. Keenan, Christopher Williams, and 7 more authors

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2023

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ERL

Intensive land-use is associated with development status in port cities of Southeast Asia

Yuyan Dong, Yu Zhou^*, Li Zhang, and 2 more authors

Environmental Research Letters, 2023
GCB

Across-model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change

Enqing Hou, Siyan Ma, Yuanyuan Huang, and 8 more authors

Global Change Biology, 2023
Ecosphere

Infrastructure to factorially manipulate the mean and variance of precipitation in the field

Jennifer A. Rudgers and others

Ecosphere, 2023

2022

Forests

Hurricanes substantially reduce the nutrients in tropical forested watersheds in Puerto Rico

Jiaxin Sun, Xiaohua Wei, Yu Zhou, and 2 more authors

Forests, 2022
JGR-B

A modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the eastern USA and Canada, evaluated with comparison to atmospheric observations and other biospheric models

Sharon M. Gourdji, Anna Karion, Ileana Lopez-Coto, and 7 more authors

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2022

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2021

ERL

Beyond biomass to carbon fluxes: Application and evaluation of a comprehensive forest carbon monitoring system

Yu Zhou^*, Christopher A. Williams, Nicholas Hasler, and 2 more authors

Environmental Research Letters, 2021

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GBC

Joint CO2 mole fraction and flux analysis confirms missing processes in CASA terrestrial carbon uptake over North America

Sha Feng, Thomas Lauvaux, Christopher A. Williams, and 5 more authors

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2021

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ESS

Atmospheric Carbon and Transport-America (ACT-America) data sets: Description, management, and delivery

Yaxing Wei and others

Earth and Space Science, 2021

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2020

JGR-B

A multiyear gridded data ensemble of surface biogenic carbon fluxes for North America: Evaluation and analysis of results

Yu Zhou, Christopher A. Williams, Thomas Lauvaux, and 5 more authors

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2020

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ERL

Increased carbon uptake and water use efficiency in global semi-arid ecosystems

Li Zhang, Jingfeng Xiao, Yao Zheng, and 2 more authors

Environmental Research Letters, 2020
Front. Microbiol.

Species diversity with comprehensive annotations of wood-inhabiting poroid and corticioid fungi in Uzbekistan

Yusufjon Gafforov, Alexander Ordynets, Ewald Langer, and 7 more authors

Frontiers in Microbiology, 2020

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2019

STOTEN

Spatiotemporal transition of institutional and socioeconomic impacts on vegetation productivity in Central Asia over last three decades

Yu Zhou, Li Zhang, Jingfeng Xiao, and 3 more authors

Science of the Total Environment, 2019
JGR-A

Seasonal characteristics of model uncertainties from biogenic fluxes, transport, and large-scale boundary inflow in atmospheric CO2 simulations over North America

Sha Feng, Thomas Lauvaux, Kenneth J. Davis, and 6 more authors

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019

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JGR-B

The carbon balance of the southeastern US forest sector as driven by recent disturbance trends

Hanyue Gu, Christopher A. Williams, Nicholas Hasler, and 1 more author

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2019
Forest Ecosyst.

Improved simulation of carbon and water fluxes by assimilating multi-layer soil temperature and moisture into process-based biogeochemical models

Min Yan, Zhi Li, Xiaoli Tian, and 2 more authors

Forest Ecosystems, 2019

DOI

2017

Arid Zone Res.

Vegetation change and its driving factors in global drylands during the period of 1982-2012

Yao Zheng, Li Zhang, Yu Zhou, and 1 more author

Arid Zone Research, 2017
Remote Sens.

The performance of airborne C-band PolInSAR data on forest growth stage types classification

Qian Feng, Li Zhou, Erxue Chen, and 3 more authors

Remote Sensing, 2017

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2016

Ecosphere

Drought events and their effects on vegetation productivity in China

Li Zhang, Jingfeng Xiao, Yu Zhou, and 3 more authors

Ecosphere, 2016

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2015

Remote Sens.

Climate contributions to vegetation variations in central Asian drylands: Pre- and post-USSR collapse

Yu Zhou, Li Zhang, Rasmus Fensholt, and 3 more authors

Remote Sensing, 2015

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Ecosphere

Contributions of natural and human factors to increases in vegetation productivity in China

Jingfeng Xiao, Yu Zhou, and Li Zhang

Ecosphere, 2015

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2014

REM

A comparison of satellite-derived vegetation indices for approximating gross primary productivity of grasslands

Yu Zhou, Li Zhang, Jingfeng Xiao, and 3 more authors

Rangeland Ecology & Management, 2014
IJRS

Drought impact on vegetation productivity in the Lower Mekong Basin

Bing Zhang, Li Zhang, Huadong Guo, and 4 more authors

International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2014

DOI

Presentations

2026. Zhou, Y., Gharun, M., Xiao, J., Guerrieri, R., Li, X., & Buchmann, N. Atmospheric Deposition Outweighs Dryness in Regulating European Ecosystem Productivity. Swiss Forest Lab Science Day, Bern, Switzerland.
2025. Zhou, Y., Gharun, M., & Buchmann, N. Interactive Effect of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought on Forest Carbon Sequestration. eLTER meeting, Tampere, Finland.
2025. [Invited] Zhou, Y. Improved estimation of forest carbon dynamics via model-data fusion. Grassland Seminar, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
2024. Zhou, Y., Litvak, M.E., Fan, J., Guo, W., Duman, T., Gomes, C., & Luo, Y. AI-powered interpretation of dryland carbon dynamics. AGU Fall Meeting, Washington DC, USA.
2023. Zhou, Y., Rudgers, J., Cui, E., Lehmann, J., Quan, Q., Xia, J., Wang, R., Sun, Y., Gomes, C., You, F., & Luo, Y. Convergent Pattern of Plant Strategies in Varied Dryness Conditions. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA.
2022. Zhou, Y., Hou, E., Litvak, M.E., Rudgers, J., Collins, S.L., Pockman, W., & Luo, Y. Improved Estimates of Carbon and Water Dynamics by TECO-Dryland and Data Assimilation. AGU Fall Meeting, Chicago, USA.
2019. Zhou, Y., Williams, C.A., Kulakowski, D., & Rogan, J. Linking Biomass Data with Carbon Cycle Modeling. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA.
2018. Zhou, Y., Williams, C.A., Lauvaux, T., Feng, S., Keller, K., & Davis, K.J. A multi-year gridded data product of surface biogenic carbon fluxes for North America: Evaluation and analysis of results. AGU Fall Meeting, Washington DC, USA.
2018. Zhou, Y. & Williams, C.A. Improving the Predictive Ability of the Global Carbon Cycle Models. Ecological Society of America annual meeting, New Orleans, USA.